Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to its negative bias through the Asian session on Thursday and trades below a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day, though the downside seems limited. The prospects for lower US interest rates, along with hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, remain supportive of the upbeat market mood. This, in turn, is seen driving some flows away from the safe-haven bullion amid thin trading volumes on the back of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.
Meanwhile, A mixed set of US economic indicators released this week did little to alter market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in December. The dovish outlook keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near an over a one-week low and is seen acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited, warranting some caution for the XAU/USD bears.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold is pressured by positive risk tone; bulls shrug off Fed rate cut bets and weaker USD
- The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that new orders for manufactured Durable Goods Orders rose 0.5% in September, down from the upwardly revised 3.0% increase in the previous month. The reading, however, exceeded market expectations of 0.3%. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation rose 0.6% during the reported month, while excluding defense, they increased 0.1% following a 1.9% rise the prior month.
- Separately, the latest figures published by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to 216K, or a seven-month low, in the week ending November 22. This helps to offset the disappointing release of the Chicago PMI, which unexpectedly fell deeper into contraction territory and came in at 36.3 for November. The US Dollar, however, struggles to lure buyers amid dovish Federal Reserve expectations.
- Recent comments from top Fed officials shifted market expectations strongly in favor of another quarter-point reduction at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. In fact, New York Fed President John Williams said last Friday that interest rates could fall in the near term without putting the central bank’s inflation goal at risk. Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at the start of this week that the job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December.
- Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran echoed the dovish view and noted in a television interview on Tuesday that a deteriorating job market and the economy call for large interest rate cuts to get monetary policy to neutral. The outlook, in turn, drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to an over one-week low during the Asian session on Thursday. This might continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold.
- Russia said that the US-brokered talks to end the war with Ukraine are serious, though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned that an agreement is a long way off and Moscow would offer no major concessions. US President Donald Trump said that a Ukraine–Russia agreement is very close, fueling optimism. This, along with prospects for lower US interest rates, remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets and weighs on the safe-haven bullion.
Gold needs to weaken below $4,132-4,130 immediate support to back the case for further losses
Any subsequent slide is likely to find decent support near the $4,132-4,130 region, below which the Gold price could accelerate the fall toward the $4,100 mark. Some follow-through selling would expose a confluence support, comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an ascending trend-line extending from late October, currently pegged around the $4,040 area. A convincing break below the latter might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and drag the XAU/USD pair to the $4,000 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the $4,171-4,173 zone, or a nearly two-week high touched on Wednesday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $4,200 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for an extension of the momentum toward testing the monthly swing high, around the $4,245 zone.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
